最近,菲律宾的皮纳图博(Pinatubo)火山和日本的乌泽恩(unzen)火山的喷发活动所导致的人员伤亡相对来说是轻微的,这主要归结于预报技术的进步使科学家能够为当地居民提供充分的预报。然而,对于诸如地震和海啸这样的自然现象是较难预报的,这里作者记述了自然灾害预报的发展过程。 Recently, casualties due to Pinatubo volcanoes in the Philippines and unzen volcanic eruptions in Japan are relatively minor, largely due to advances in forecasting techniques that have enabled scientists to work locally, Residents provide adequate forecasts. However, natural phenomena such as earthquakes and tsunamis are more difficult to predict, and here the author chronicles the development of a natural disaster forecast.