论文部分内容阅读
通过科学的指标构建来量化地震风险的预警与应急能力已经成为整合性风险管理框架下地震风险管理的发展方向。本文利用灾害学的量化评估方法,根据统计指数的构建理论,从统计指数的指标构建到实际应用,设计出一套较为系统的地震应急能力指数,希望以此丰富地震风险管理中的研究方法。本文的研究结果显示,从横向对比上看,统计时点影响和经济价值影响使得汶川地震的各项地震应急能力指数数值结果明显高于雅江—康定地震;而从纵向对比上看,两次地震的测算结果均表明地震预测与监控能力指数的综合权重最高,因此在未来的工作中需要增加地震预防过程中的投入,提高地震的预测与监控水平。
It has become the development direction of earthquake risk management under the framework of integrated risk management that the early warning and emergency response capabilities to quantify earthquake risk are constructed through scientific indicators. In this paper, we use the method of quantitative evaluation of catastrophism and build the theory index of statistical index from the index construction of statistical index to practical application, and design a set of more systematic index of earthquake emergency capability in order to enrich the research methods in seismic risk management. The results of this study show that in terms of horizontal comparison, the statistical time-series impact and economic impact make the earthquake emergency response index values of the Wenchuan earthquake significantly higher than that of the Yajiang-Kangding earthquake; while from the longitudinal comparison, the two earthquakes The results show that the comprehensive index of earthquake prediction and monitoring index is the highest, so it is necessary to increase the investment in earthquake prevention in future work and improve the prediction and monitoring of earthquakes.