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科学家们最近作出了一项地震预报:1986年至1993年期间,在美国加州的帕克菲尔德将发生一次6级左右的地震。这次预报对于提高关于地震的认识和增进预报的能力,提供了一次极好的机会。为了充分记录这一高概率事件的前后过程,需要在帕克菲尔德设立地震预报实验场。1985年6月,上述意见和要求通过国家研究理事会(NRC)和美国全国科学院(NAS)引起了联邦政府和加州政府的注意。目前由联邦政府和加州政府拨款,资助在帕克菲尔德地区设置仪器的工作,其目的在于试图在数天或数小时之前预报这次地震。实验场的具体计划正在完善和落实中。这是美国1985年地震学方面的一次重要事件,本文述及以下五个方面:1.美国地震预报工作背景;2.建立实验场的基本思路;3.实验场地点的确定;4.实验场的做法;5.组织和国际合作。主要是从美国地震预报工作的背景出发,较详细地介绍1985年以来美国在地震预报实验场方面的工作,特别着重于他们的新观点和新做法。
Scientists recently made an earthquake prediction: a magnitude 6 earthquake will occur in Parkfield, California, from 1986 to 1993. This forecast provides an excellent opportunity to raise awareness about earthquakes and improve forecasting capabilities. In order to fully document the process of this high-probability event, an experimental earthquake prediction site needs to be established in Parkfield. In June 1985, these comments and requests caught the attention of the federal and state governments through the National Research Council (NRC) and the National Academy of Sciences (NAS). Funding is currently being provided by the federal government and the state government to fund the installation of instruments in the Parkfield area with the aim of trying to predict the earthquake in days or hours. The specific plan of the experimental field is being perfected and implemented. This is an important event in the seismology of the United States in 1985, and this article covers the following five aspects: 1. Background of the earthquake prediction work in the United States; 2. The basic idea of establishing an experimental field; 3. The determination of the experimental site; 4. The experimental field Practice; 5. Organization and international cooperation. Mainly from the background of the earthquake prediction work in the United States, the work of the United States on the earthquake prediction experimental field since 1985 is introduced in more detail, with particular emphasis on their new ideas and new approaches.