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福岛核泄漏后,日本国内展开了关于未来能源政策抉择的大辩论,最终选择放弃发展核电。这一大讨论揭示出许多鲜为人知的事实,理清了日本核电政策形成的原因,暴露出过去日本能源政策的若干缺陷。日本核电成本的重新核算表明,核电并非廉价。根据光伏发电成本发展趋势所作的预测表明,未来10年内光伏发电的成本将会低于传统能源发电的成本。我国应汲取日本能源政策的经验教训,采取能源结构多元化的促进政策,加快智能电网和“上网电价”的全面实施,给各种清洁能源技术以公平的发展空间,借助市场来检验和选择最为经济,最适合我国国情的未来能源。
Fukushima nuclear leak, Japan launched a major debate on the future of energy policy options, the final choice to give up the development of nuclear power. This major discussion revealed many little-known facts, clarified the reasons for the formation of Japan’s nuclear power policy and exposed some of the shortcomings of Japan’s energy policy in the past. The recalculation of the cost of nuclear power in Japan shows that nuclear power is not cheap. The forecast based on the trend of PV power costs shows that the cost of PV power generation in the next 10 years will be lower than that of traditional energy power generation. China should draw lessons from Japan’s energy policy and adopt a promotion policy of diversified energy structure to speed up the full implementation of smart grid and “on-grid tariffs” and give all kinds of clean energy technologies a fair space for development and market tests Choose the most economical and future energy best suited to China’s national conditions.