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通过构建改进后的KMV模型,设定三种不同违约情境,对2010-2012年我国农业上市公司的信用风险进行测度与比较研究,并确定其隶属的风险类型,以揭示现阶段农业上市公司的信用状况.研究结果表明:不同农业上市公司的资产价值均高于股权价值,其未来发展具有较好的价值增值空间;农业上市公司的资产价值波动率总体呈下降趋势;农业上市公司信用状况相对较差,且风险类型主要集中于“∩”型和↘型“.由此得出农业上市公司未来的发展,应在推进”股权分置“改革、建立可量化的风险管理机制、实现风险管理与业务流程融合等方面采取措施,从而有效降低我国农业上市公司的信用风险.
By constructing an improved KMV model and setting three different default situations, we measure and compare the credit risk of listed agricultural companies in China from 2010 to 2012, and determine the types of risk they belong to in order to reveal the current situation of agricultural listed companies Credit status.The results show that: the assets value of listed companies in different agriculture are higher than the value of equity, and its future development has a better value-added space; the volatility of asset value of agricultural listed companies is generally declining; the credit status of listed agricultural companies is relatively Poor, and the risk types are mainly concentrated in the ”∩ “ type and ↘ type. ”Thus come to the future development of agricultural listed companies, should promote the“ split share structure ”reform, the establishment of a quantifiable risk management Mechanism, the realization of risk management and business process integration measures to effectively reduce the credit risk of China’s agricultural listed companies.