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通过构建半参数面板数据向量自回归模型,本文研究了服务业发展水平、经济增长、碳排放强度与技术进步的非线性关系,以及相互之间的动态扰动关系。结果表明:服务业发展、经济增长、碳排放强度和技术进步的非参数估计,分别存在“N”、“V”和倒“U”形的曲线关系;服务业发展水平的提高不仅未能降低碳排放强度,反而推动了碳排放强度的上升;服务业与经济增长二者间的相互影响具有非对称性;碳排放强度的上升既会抑制经济增长,也会对服务业的发展产生负面影响。
By constructing a semi-parametric panel data vector autoregressive model, this paper studies the nonlinear relationship between service level, economic growth, carbon intensity and technological progress, as well as the dynamic disturbance between them. The results show that the non-parametric estimation of service development, economic growth, carbon emission intensity and technological progress have the curve relations of “N”, “V” and “U” Not only failed to reduce the intensity of carbon emissions, but to promote the intensity of carbon emissions rise; service industry and economic growth between the two have asymmetric; the rise of carbon emissions both inhibit economic growth, but also for services The development of the industry has a negative impact.