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本文构建Baumol修正模型,考虑了国际分工和制度因素对工业和服务业均衡发展的影响。经验研究表明,我国产业结构转型升级不仅依赖于服务业的技术进步,还受到农业进步的阶段性影响。居民消费升级对产业升级具有正向作用。参与国际分工的出口导向战略显著地限制了我国产业结构趋向服务化;我国长期存在的制造优势被“锁定”以及“工业导向”的粗放经济增长模式,导致了要素配置更加集中于工业部门,阻碍了服务部门发展。“十二五”时期应该宽松体制束缚,发展多元化服务型经济,避免服务业走向制度性的“Baumol陷阱”。
This paper constructs the Baumol revision model, considering the impact of the international division of labor and institutional factors on the balanced development of industry and service industries. Experience shows that the transformation and upgrading of China’s industrial structure depend not only on technological progress in the service industry, but also on the stage of agricultural progress. Upgrading of consumer spending has a positive effect on industrial upgrading. The export-oriented strategy of participating in the international division of labor significantly limits the tendency of service-oriented industrial structure in our country. The extensive economic growth mode in which China’s long-standing manufacturing superiority is “locked” and “industrial oriented” has led to a more focused allocation of factors The industrial sector hindered the development of the service sector. “Twelve-Five ” period should be loose system constraints, the development of a diversified service-oriented economy, to avoid the service industry to the institutional “Baumol trap.”