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由于地震现象的复杂性．目前还写不出地震动力学方程组，但是，基于唯象物理模型方法，却可以建立起唯象地震模型来映射地震活动的基本规律，从而研究地震动力学过程．本文用闭锁点区来唯象地模拟智利型海沟地震的力学孕育机制．认为：各闭锁点之间由“软材料”隔开．当某闭锁点发生‘粘滑”地震时，该闭锁点附近的“软材料”也会具有一定的瞬时抗剪能力，但随着时间推移，‘软材料’抗剪能力逐渐下降，其所承担的剪力向其它闭锁点转移，形成新的应力集中．每个闭锁点的地震应力由：上次地震的残余应力、板块持续构造运动的应力积累、其它闭锁点地震‘转移’过来的地震应力三部分组成．按照这种思想，地震活动的空间相关性得到了较大程度的考虑．基于上述观点，本文分析了纬度２０Ｓ～４０Ｓ智利海沟部分近２０年内的地震危险性．
Due to the complexity of the earthquake phenomenon. However, based on the phenomenological physical model method, however, the basic laws of seismic activity can be established by using phenomenological seismic models to study the seismic dynamics process. In this paper, the mechanistic mechanism of Chilean-type trench earthquakes is phenomenally simulated by the closed-point area. Think: Each lock point is separated by “soft material.” When a “stick-slip” earthquake occurs at a lockout point, the “soft material” near the lockout point will also have some instantaneous shear resistance. However, as time goes on, the ’soft material’ The shear stress of each block point is composed of the residual stress of the last earthquake, the stress accumulation of the continuous tectonic movement of the plate, and the seismic stress of the other locked-up point ’transfer’ According to this idea, the spatial correlation of seismic activity has been considered to a great extent.Based on the above viewpoints, the paper analyzes the seismic hazard of the 20 t ~ 40 s Chile trenches in recent 20 years.