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本文讨论生命线及其他基础结构系统(Infrastructural!system)地震风险(Seismic hazard)和危害(risk)的定量估计。中心目的是确定基础结构系统由于地震而引起的不同程度损坏的可能性以及如何使用这些资料。地震风险通过系统对破坏性地震的总反应来度量。文章提及了描述总体反应的可能参数,但未作详细讨论,参考文献则已列出。重点是放在用这种参数作为风险量度的哲理。文中论述了算法的一般结构,所要做的假定,以及进行分析的模拟技术,介绍了地震危害分析,可靠性概念的应用及预期的性能。可以肯定,所需的分析方法都是以大量不确定的和(或)主观的资料为基础的。但是,这些方法却可以对基础结构系统的抗震性能提供一种非常有价值的见解。
This article discusses the quantitative estimation of Seismic hazards and hazards for lifeline and other infrastructure systems (Infrastructural!system). The purpose of the center is to determine the possibility of varying degrees of damage to the infrastructure system due to the earthquake and how to use it. Earthquake risk is measured by the total response of the system to a destructive earthquake. The article mentions possible parameters describing the overall response but does not discuss it in detail. References are listed. The focus is on using this parameter as a metric for risk measurement. The paper discusses the general structure of the algorithm, the assumptions to be made, and the simulation techniques used to perform the analysis. It introduces seismic hazard analysis, the application of reliability concepts, and the expected performance. To be sure, the analytical methods required are based on a large amount of uncertain and/or subjective data. However, these methods can provide a very valuable insight into the seismic performance of the infrastructure system.