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目的:分析ICU获得性衰弱的危险因素，构建并验证ICU获得性衰弱风险预测模型，为ICU患者的治疗和护理提供参考依据。方法:采用便利抽样法，选取2018年12月—2019年7月某三级甲等医院3个ICU收治的306例ICU患者，采用随机数字表法将患者分为建模组（214例）和验证组（92例），并根据患者是否发生获得性衰弱，将建模组患者分为ICU获得性衰弱组（39例）和非ICU获得性衰弱组（175例）。采用Logistic回归分析危险因素，构建风险预测模型，应用Hosmer-Lemeshow卡方检验评价该模型的拟合程度，并选取验证组患者资料，应用ROC曲线下面积对该模型的预测效果进行验证。结果:本研究最终纳入年龄（n OR=1.050）、性别（n OR=0.300）、ICU住院时间（n OR=1.061）、是否发生脓毒血症（n OR=17.850）4个危险因素构建风险预测模型，模型方程：n Z=0.048×年龄-1.205×性别赋值+0.060×ICU住院时间+2.882×脓毒血症赋值-4.954。Hosmer-Lemeshow卡方检验结果显示模型有较好的拟合程度（χn 2=7.267，n P=0.508），验证组ROC曲线下面积为0.804，灵敏度为0.833，特异度为0.649，Youden指数为0.482，最佳风险阈值为16.14%。n 结论:该模型具有较好的拟合程度，且该模型的预测效果较好，可帮助医护人员为ICU患者进行ICU获得性衰弱的发生风险评估，为临床医护人员制定适宜的治疗及护理方案提供参考。“,”Objective:To analyze the risk factors of intensive care unit acquired weakness (ICU-AW) and to construct and verify the risk prediction model of ICU-AW, so as to provide references for the treatment and care of ICU patients.Methods:Using the convenient sampling method, a total of 306 ICU patients who were admitted to 3 ICUs in a ClassⅢ Grade A hospital from December 2018 to July 2019 were selected and they were divided into the modeling group (214 cases) and the validation group (92 cases) by the random number table method. Patients in the modeling group were divided into ICU acquired weakness group (39 cases) and non-ICU acquired weakness group (175 cases) according to whether the patients experienced acquired weakness or not. Logistic regression was used to analyze the risk factors and a risk prediction model was constructed. Hosmer-Lemeshow chi-square test was used to evaluate the fit degree of the model. The data of patients in the validation group were selected, and the area under the ROC curve was used to verify the predictive effect of the model.Results:In this study, four risk factors including age (n OR=1.050) , gender (n OR=0.300) , length of ICU stay (n OR=1.061) and occurrence of sepsis (n OR=17.850) were finally included to construct a risk prediction model. The model equation was Z=0.048×age-1.205×gender assignment+0.060×length of ICU stay+2.882×sepsis assignment-4.954. results of Hosmer-Lemeshow chi-square test showed that the model had a good fit degree (χn 2=7.267, n P=0.508) . The area under the ROC curve of the validation group was 0.804, the sensitivity was 0.833, the specificity was 0.649, Youden index was 0.482, and the optimal risk threshold was 16.14%.n Conclusions:The model has a good fit degree and the predictive effect of the model is good. It can help medical staff to assess the risk of intensive care unit acquired weakness for ICU patients and provide references for clinical medical staff to formulate appropriate treatment and nursing plans.