论文部分内容阅读
货物周转量可以反映出一个地区物流发展的程度,因此对其进行预测分析,对于发展区域经济有重要意义。本文首先运用层次分析法确定权重后,再组合三种预测模型,即时间序列平均移动模型,灰色预测GM(1,1)模型,非线性回归模型,分别对湖北省公路货运周转量进行拟合对比。最后对2005-2010年湖北公路货运周转量发展程度进行预测,为发展湖北省未来几年公路交通建设政策制订提供参考。
Cargo turnover can reflect the degree of logistics development in a region, so forecasting and analyzing it is of great significance to the development of regional economy. In this paper, we first use the analytic hierarchy process to determine the weights, and then combine the three forecast models, that is, the average time series movement model, the gray forecasting GM (1,1) model and the non-linear regression model to respectively fit the highway freight traffic volume in Hubei Province Compared. Finally, the forecast of the development of Hubei highway freight traffic volume in 2005-2010 is predicted, which will provide reference for the development of highway traffic policy in Hubei Province in the coming years.