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2014年以来,国际油价持续大幅下跌,但沙特并未选择“限产提价”的传统政策,相反却选择执行了坚定的不减产政策,这令国际社会颇感困惑,并且出现充满争议的种种解释。沙特石油不减产政策的战略目标是维护石油在能源结构中的地位,维持沙特和中东在世界能源生产格局中的中心地位,稳固和拓展其在新兴经济体的市场等。在实行不减产政策的复杂国际博弈中,沙特拥有石油开采成本低、外汇储备充足等优势。沙特这一石油政策对世界石油市场、沙特内政以及中东地缘政治产生了深刻影响,但它能否延续并取得最终成功则受到诸多复杂因素的制约。
Since 2014, the international oil prices have continued to plunge. However, Saudi Arabia has not chosen the traditional policy of “limited production price increase.” Instead, it has chosen to implement a firm policy of non-reduction of production. This has confused the international community and has been controversial Various explanations. The strategic goal of the DPRK’s policy of non-reduction in output is to maintain the position of oil in the energy structure, maintain the centrality of Saudi Arabia and the Middle East in the world energy production pattern, and stabilize and expand its market in emerging economies. In the complicated international game where the policy of non-reduction is implemented, Saudi Arabia has the advantages of low oil exploitation costs and sufficient foreign exchange reserves. Saudi Arabia’s oil policy has exerted a profound impact on the world oil market, the internal affairs of Saudi Arabia and geopolitics in the Middle East. However, its continued success and its ultimate success are constrained by many complicated factors.