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随着我国国库集中收付管理制度改革的深化,国库现金余额整体呈现出稳步、快速增长趋势。根据2000-2014年国库现金的月度数据,建立扩展鲍莫尔模型,进而对中国国库最优现金余额进行估计。结果表明:我国最优国库现金余额呈逐年微幅上升特征,并且我国国库最优现金余额平均水平在1018.51亿元至2614.99亿元之间。因此,为了减少国库现金余额,使库款稳定在一个合理的范围,就要充分借鉴国际经验,加大国库现金管理力度。
With the deepening of the reform of China’s Treasury centralized collection and payment management system, the overall cash balance of the Treasury has shown a steady and rapid growth trend. Based on the monthly data of national treasury cash from 2000 to 2014, an extended Baumolk model is established to estimate the optimal cash balance of China’s treasury. The results show that the cash balance of the optimal treasury in our country shows a slight increase year by year, and the average cash balance of the optimal treasury in China is between 101.851 billion yuan and 261.499 billion yuan. Therefore, in order to reduce the cash balance of the state treasury and stabilize the treasury balance within a reasonable range, we must fully draw on international experience and increase treasury cash management.