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本文描述了用于土星V运载火箭的可靠性分析模型,并提出了确定关键性数的方法。该方法是将运载火箭各级与发动机的6个可靠性预测模型和与其有关的失效后果分析报告一起,作为确定关键性数的基础。本文还列出了关键性数方程CR=αβR的推导过程。土星V可靠性分析模型的应用,已远远超出预测模型的范围。它已应用于确定任务成功的概率、运载火箭生存概率和宇航员生存概率等方面。这个模型还进一步被用于评估性能的可靠性,和确定需要管理部门注意的那些关键领域。
This paper describes the reliability analysis model for the Saturn V carrier rocket and proposes a method to determine the critical number. This method uses the six reliability prediction models at all stages of the launch vehicle and the engine together with their associated failure response analysis reports as the basis for determining the critical number. This article also lists the derivation of the critical number equation CR = αβR. Saturn V reliability analysis model has been far beyond the scope of the prediction model. It has been used to determine the probability of mission success, the rocket survival probability and the astronaut survival probability and so on. This model is further used to assess the reliability of performance and identify the key areas that require management attention.