论文部分内容阅读
河南省栾川县是暴雨型泥石流易发地区,历史记载该县曾数次发生区域性泥石流。2007年及2010年栾川县又暴发了两次大规模泥石流灾害,全县损失惨重。为了给栾川县泥石流防灾减灾提供有效途径,结合野外泥石流调查数据及GIS技术探讨,建立了栾川暴雨型泥石流易发性实时动态区划模型。该模型系由物源积聚、径流产能及土体强度弱化等三大条件11个因子构成,通过计算易发指数和净易发指数二值,实时判别栾川县泥石流高易发区域并进行预警;因子权重通过三标度层次分析法进行赋值;因子本身划分成不同级别并按1到0进行量化。同时,结合2010年“7·24”暴雨型泥石流灾害点对模型进行了验证,结论表明,模型同时适用于坡面型泥石流和沟谷型泥石流,具有实用价值。最后基于上述模型,认为易发指数>0.216且净易发指数>0.05可作为栾川县暴雨型泥石流暴发预警警戒值。
Luanchuan County, Henan Province, is a stormy debris flow prone areas, the history of the county has occurred several times the regional debris flow. In 2007 and 2010, another massive debris flow disaster broke out in Luanchuan County, causing heavy losses to the county. In order to provide an effective approach to debris flow prevention and mitigation in Luanchuan County, the real-time dynamic zoning model of heavy rain debris flow in Luanchuan was established based on the investigation of field debris flow data and GIS technology. The model consisted of 11 factors, including source accumulation, runoff yield and soil strength weakening. By calculating the two indexes of easy index and net easy index, real-time identification of high debris flow prone area in Luanchuan County and early warning; The factor weights are assigned by three-level AHP; the factors themselves are divided into different levels and quantified by 1 to 0. At the same time, the model was verified by combining with the “7.24” rainstorm-type debris flow disaster in 2010 and the conclusion shows that the model is applicable to slope-type debris flow and gully debris flow, which is of practical value. Finally, based on the above model, it is considered that the susceptible index> 0.216 and the net susceptibility index> 0.05 can be used as the alert warning value for rainstorm-type debris flow outbreak in Luanchuan County.