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本文基于1990-2010年中国省级农产品虚拟水消费相关数据,将空间效应和习惯效应纳入分析框架,构建了动态空间面板STIRPAT模型,从人口、富裕程度、技术以及空间效应和习惯效应五个方面研究了中国农产品虚拟水消费的影响因素。实证分析结果表明:城镇人口数、农村人口数、人均地区生产总值、粮食加权虚拟水含量、肉类加权虚拟水含量均显著正向影响中国农产品虚拟水消费量。但是,由于中国各省份水资源要素相对于劳动、资本与土地资源等要素在富足程度上差异很大,并且可以通过农产品虚拟水贸易来调节虚拟水生产量与消费量的不一致,因而中国各省份农产品虚拟水产量、单位面积粮食产量与虚拟水消费量的关系比较复杂,不能简单地断定上述各因素对各省份农产品虚拟水消费量有正向影响还是负向影响。另外,中国农产品虚拟水消费存在空间效应与习惯效应。本文还证实了中国存在“正N型”的农产品虚拟水消费Kuznets曲线,并且东部大部分省份农产品虚拟水消费已经越过了第二个拐点,而中西部大部分省份农产品虚拟水消费仍处于第一个拐点与第二个拐点之间。
Based on the data of provincial-level consumption of virtual water for agricultural products in China from 1990 to 2010, this paper puts spatial and customary effects into the framework of analysis and constructs a dynamic spatial panel STIRPAT model. From the five aspects of population, affluence, technology and spatial and customary effects The influencing factors of virtual water consumption of agricultural products in China were studied. The results of empirical analysis show that urban population, rural population, GDP per capita, food-weighted virtual water content and meat-weighted virtual water content both positively and significantly affect the consumption of virtual water for agricultural products in China. However, as provinces in China share significant differences in their relative abundance of water resources relative to their labor, capital and land resources, and they can adjust the discrepancy between virtual water production and consumption through the virtual trade in agricultural products, The relationship between the virtual aquatic products of agricultural products and food production per unit area and the consumption of virtual water is rather complicated. It can not be simply concluded whether these factors have a positive or negative impact on the consumption of virtual water for agricultural products in all provinces. In addition, there are spatial and habitual effects on the consumption of virtual agricultural products in China. This paper also confirms the Kuznets curve of “virtual N-type” consumption of agricultural products in China and the virtual water consumption of agricultural products in most of the eastern provinces has crossed the second turning point while the virtual water consumption of agricultural products in most of the central and western provinces is still at Between the first inflection point and the second inflection point.