小麦赤霉病的流行规律和预测预报的研究,国内外文献很多,但关于长期预报方面的文献较少。由于小麦赤霉病的流行具有间歇性和暴发性的特点,前者往往使人麻痹大意而忽视打药或盲目用药,后者又往往使人来不及防治而造成严重损失;再者我国目前的农药和药械不足,专业测报机构与基层单 The prevalence and forecasting of wheat scab have a lot of literature both at home and abroad, but there are few reports on long-term prediction. Because of the intermittent and explosive epidemic of wheat scab, the former often makes people negligent and ignores the use of drugs or blind medication, which often make people too late to prevent and cause serious losses; Furthermore, China’s current pesticides and drug Insufficient, professional newspaper reporting agencies and grass-roots single