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基于孕震断层多锁固段脆性破裂理论,对北美洲板块划分了3个板内地震区,对加勒比板块划分了6个板间与板内地震区,对斯科舍板块划分了7个板间地震区,对大洋海岭地震带划分了4个板间地震区,对大陆裂谷地震带划分了3个地震区.从孕育周期界定与主震事件判识角度,分析了这些地震区大(巨)震事件孕育过程,研判了其未来震情.结果表明:关塔那摩-圣胡安与波哥大-阿里卡-瓦尔迪维亚地震区未来有巨震发生;普利茅斯-库马纳与贝加尔湖地震区未来有大震或巨震发生;哈利法克斯-纽约-亚特兰大、阿拉斯加半岛、波兹曼-华雷斯城、韦韦特南戈-科万、加拉加斯-库库塔、巴拿马城、太子港-金斯顿-特古西加尔巴、蓬塔阿雷纳斯、南桑威奇群岛、蒙塔古岛、布里奇曼岛、朱巴-布琼布拉与夏威夷群岛地震区未来有大震发生;大洋海岭地震区B与阿塞拉-利隆圭地震区未来有强震或大震发生;西斯科舍海盆地震区未来有强震发生;斯科舍海盆、大洋海岭地震区A与大洋海岭地震区C当前孕育周期主震事件已发生,目前处于余震活动期;对于蒙塔古岛东部地震区,若2006年MW7.4级地震为主震事件,则该区未来有可能发生MW7.0级左右余震,若非主震事件则未来将发生MW7.6~7.8级地震.本文所得结论可供有关国家相关部门参考,以采取有效防震减灾措施.
Based on the multi-locking brittle fracture theory of the seismogenic fault, three intraplate seismic zones are divided into North America, six intraplate and intraplate intraseasonal areas are divided for the Caribbean plate, and seven plates are divided for the North Pacific plate In this paper, we divide four seismic zones between the oceanic ridge and the continental rift seismic zone, and divide them into three seismic zones.From the perspective of the identification of the incubation period and the identification of the main shock event, The results show that there will be a huge earthquake in Guantanamo-San Juan and Bogot-Arica-Valdivia seismic regions in the future, and the Plymouth-Cumana and Baikal seismic regions Future earthquakes or massive earthquakes occur; Halifax-New York-Atlanta, Alaska Peninsula, Bozeman-Juarez, Hueweatango-Covadong, Caracas-Cucuta, Panama City, Port-au-Prince - Kingston-Tegucigalpa, Punta Arenas, South Sandwich Islands, Montague Island, Bridgetown Island, Juba-Bujumbura and Hawaii Islands Earthquake Zone Future A major earthquake occurred; the oceanic Ridge earthquake zone B and the future of Assala-Lilongwe earthquake area Strong earthquakes or major earthquakes occur in the future; strong earthquakes occur in the future in the Soxhlet Basin, and the main shock events in the current period of C in the Scotia Basin, Ocean Ridge Seismic Zone A and Oceanic Ridge Seismological Zone C have occurred, Period; for the eastern Montague Island earthquake area, if the 2006 Mw7.4 earthquake is the main shock event, the aftershock of about MW7.0 in the future may occur in the future, and the MW7.6 ~ 7.8 earthquake.The conclusions of this paper can be used for reference by the relevant state departments in order to take effective earthquake disaster reduction measures.