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介绍了目前洪水风险分析的基本模型,指出了其缺点在于过于繁琐,且大多没有考虑模糊性。在简化了随机荷载和随机抗力的基础上,综合考虑其随机性和模糊性,提出洪水漫坝模糊可靠度分析的简化模型,并介绍了一种该模型的近似解法。给出了一算例,分析其计算结果,如实指出了该方法存在的局限性以及适用条件:该模型对随机变量的特征参数准确性要求较高,在随机变量特征参数不确定时,该方法可作粗略的估算;在确保随机变量特征参数相对准确的条件下,该简化方法的计算成果具有满意的精确度。
The basic model of current flood risk analysis is introduced, pointing out that the disadvantage is that it is too cumbersome, and most of them do not consider fuzziness. Based on the simplification of stochastic load and stochastic resistance, a simplified model of fuzzy reliability analysis of flood dam is put forward considering the randomness and fuzziness, and an approximate solution of the model is introduced. An example is given to analyze the calculation results. The limitations of the proposed method are pointed out as well as the applicable conditions. The model requires high accuracy of the characteristic parameters of the random variables. When the characteristic parameters of the random variables are uncertain, Which can be roughly estimated. The calculation results of this simplified method have satisfactory accuracy under the condition of ensuring that the characteristic parameters of random variables are relatively accurate.