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系统阐述了某跨海大桥的运作程序、结构框架及BOT融资模式,在已有对该桥BOT融资效益分析的基础上,通过2009年该大桥实际车流量和通行费收入,建立了车流量与通行费收入的线性回归方程及对数回归方程。分析表明,车流量与通行费收入线性回归方程所得大桥的融资效益较高,但该方程不能真实反映大桥可能达到的实际车流量,因此利用对数回归的研究方法,重新计算了未来十几年大桥可能的通行费收入。研究发现,该大桥在服役期内可以产生正的净现值,在保证预定收益实现的同时,还可获得更高的经济效益。
This paper systematically expounds the operation procedure, structure framework and BOT financing mode of a sea-crossing bridge. Based on the analysis of the BOT financing benefit of this bridge, the actual traffic flow and toll revenue of this bridge are established in 2009, Linear Regression Equation and Logarithmic Regression Equation of Toll Revenue. The analysis shows that the financing benefit of the bridge obtained by the linear regression equation of traffic flow and toll income is high, but the equation can not truly reflect the actual traffic flow that the bridge may reach. Therefore, by using the method of logarithm regression, we recalculate the future ten years Bridge possible toll income. The study found that the bridge can generate a positive net present value during the service period, and can achieve higher economic benefits while guaranteeing the scheduled revenue realization.