短水准测量是我国形变台站普遍应用的手段之一,它在历次大震中取得了一些可贵的资料,在海城地震前曾用它作过有成效的预报,获得过较好的评价。但多年实践也表现了它本身存在的问题,不少人对它的预报能力信、疑参半,并试图对它的效果进行审议和估价。 Short leveling is one of the commonly used means of deformation stations in our country. It has obtained some valuable data in previous large earthquakes and used it as an effective forecast before Haicheng Earthquake to obtain a better evaluation. However, many years of practice have also manifested its own problems. Many people believe that its ability to forecast is mixed with uncertainty and try to review and appraise its effectiveness.