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目的探索气象因素与猩红热发病的关联性。方法收集浙江省2005—2014年猩红热月发病数据以及同期气温、气压等气象资料,应用广义相加模型分析气象因素与猩红热发病之间的关联程度和形式。结果平均水汽压、日照时数与猩红热发病间存在负关联;降水量、平均气压、平均风速、平均气温与猩红热发病间均存在较复杂的非线性关系,其中平均气压、平均风速和平均气温对猩红热发病影响呈近似二次曲线关系。平均气压<10 050(0.1 h Pa)时是正效应;在18.7~23.6(0.1 m/s)风速范围内,对猩红热发病有较小的正效应;平均气温在<250(0.1℃)时,对猩红热发病的影响负效应逐渐减弱。结论气象因素与猩红热发病之间存在较复杂的非线性关系,降水量、气压、风速以及温度与猩红热发病可能存在关联。
Objective To explore the association between meteorological factors and the incidence of scarlet fever. Methods The data of monthly incidence of scarlet fever in Zhejiang Province from 2005 to 2014 and the temperature and air pressure data of the same period were collected. The generalized additive model was used to analyze the association degree and form between meteorological factors and the incidence of scarlet fever. Results There was a negative correlation between average vapor pressure and sunshine hours and the incidence of scarlet fever. Precipitation, mean pressure, mean wind speed, mean temperature and scarlet fever had complicated relationships among them. The average pressure, mean wind speed and mean temperature The incidence of scarlet fever showed an approximate quadratic curve. When the mean air pressure is less than 10 050 (0.1 h Pa), it has a positive effect on the incidence of scarlet fever in the wind speed range of 18.7 to 23.6 (0.1 m / s). When the average temperature is <250 (0.1 ℃) The impact of scarlet fever negative effect gradually weakened. Conclusion There is a complicated nonlinear relationship between meteorological factors and the incidence of scarlet fever. Precipitation, air pressure, wind speed and temperature may be correlated with the onset of scarlet fever.