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针对危险天气下进近管制系统运行风险性大、易发不安全事件的问题,提出根据一段时期内不安全事件的信息来评估该时期进近管制系统运行的风险,从而为以后进近管制系统的安全运行管理提供依据。首先,通过分析危险天气下管制系统运行过程的风险因素,建立风险评估指标体系。其次,给出评估指标灰色关联度属性的计算方法,利用其反映出的信息熵完成指标权重的确定和风险评估模型的建立。最后,应用该模型评估某进近管制中心一段时期内管制运行的风险状态水平,得到了风险值和风险级别,验证了该方法的适用性。
Aiming at the problem that the approach control system is dangerous in operation and prone to unsafe incidents in dangerous weather, it is proposed to evaluate the operation risk of the approach control system based on the information of unsafe incidents in a period of time so as to provide a basis for the future approach control system Provide a basis for the safe operation and management. First, by analyzing the risk factors of the operation of the regulatory system in dangerous weather, a risk assessment index system is established. Secondly, the method of calculating the gray relational attribute of the evaluation index is given, and the weight of the index and the establishment of the risk assessment model are achieved by using the information entropy it reflects. Finally, this model is used to evaluate the risk status of a certain approaching control center for a certain period of operation, and the risk value and risk level are obtained, which verifies the applicability of this method.