西北高山区寒区流域在全球变化背景下,河川径流发生了明显的变化,定量分析和评估径流变化对制定西部水资源可持续利用有着重要的意义.在VIC模型(含有冻土计算方案)的框架基础上,成功了耦合能量-物质平衡方案,改善了其在寒区冰川流域的水文过程模拟的效果.选择新疆阿克苏河流域作为研究区,验证表明改进后的模型取得比较理想的模拟结果.基于模拟的径流和观测数据,分析了阿克苏河两大支流径流组成及其变化特征.结果表明:1)托什干河冰川区径流占总径流的29.2%,昆马力克河冰川区径流占总径流的58.7%;2)两大支流总径流量近38a均呈增加趋势,托什干河径流增加了43.1%,平均年增加幅度为25.95×106 m3.a-1,昆马力克河径流增加13.1%,平均年增加幅度为14.09×106 m3.a-1;3)低冰川覆盖率的托什干河径流增加完全由于非冰川区径流的增加,高冰川覆盖率的昆马力克河径流增加是冰川区径流和非冰川区径流增加共同作用的结果,其中,总径流增加量中42%是来自于冰川区径流,58%来自于非冰川区径流. In the context of global changes in the cold region watersheds in northwest high mountain areas, river runoff has undergone significant changes, and quantitative analysis and assessment of runoff variations are of great significance in formulating sustainable utilization of water resources in the western part of China. In the VIC model (including frozen soil calculation schemes) Based on the framework, the coupled energy-matter balance scheme has been successfully improved to simulate the hydrological process in the glacier basin in cold region. Aksu River basin in Xinjiang was chosen as the study area, and the results show that the improved model achieves better simulation results. Based on the simulated runoff and the observed data, the runoff composition and the variation characteristics of the two major tributaries of the Aksu River were analyzed.The results showed that: 1) the runoff in the Toshchian glacier area accounted for 29.2% of the total runoff, and the Runoff in the Kunma Lectra glacier accounted for 58.7% of the total runoff; 2) The total runoff of the two major tributaries increased nearly 38a, and the runoff of the Tushke River increased by 43.1% with an average annual increase of 25.95 × 106 m3.a-1 13.1%, with an average annual increase of 14.09 × 106 m3.a-1; 3) Increased runoff of the Tushkegan River with low glacier coverage is entirely due to the increase of runoff in the non-glacial area, The increase is a result of the combined effect of increased runoff in the glacier and non-glacier regions, of which 42% of total runoff increase comes from glacier runoff and 58% from non-glacial runoff.