本文在前人研究潜在生产力和人口承载力的几种评价模型基础上,建立了适合我国情况的潜在生产力评价动态机理模型,运算中把全国划分为603个区域单元,提高了计算的精确度,得出了全国农田及草地第一性潜在生产力的分布及分级结果以及人口承载力与食物消费水平的预测;在此基础上,提出了我国农业发展的三点基本对策。 Based on the previous studies on several models of potential productivity and population carrying capacity, this paper establishes a dynamic mechanism model of potential productivity evaluation that is suitable for our country. In the calculation, the country is divided into 603 regional units, which improves the accuracy of calculation, Obtained the distribution and grading results of the primary potential productivity of farmland and grassland in China and the prediction of the population carrying capacity and the level of food consumption. On this basis, it puts forward three basic measures for the development of agriculture in China.