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东南沿海E市新区1%常住户抽样调查显示,98%以上的受访者对上访行为表示理解;在遭受利益损失或不公正对待、相对缓和的解决方式无效时,潜在的上访者比例会超过10%。排序逻辑模型回归结果说明,上访主要是为了解决问题,而非宣示政治主张;生活满意度低会导致更激烈的行为选择,潜在上访者具有社会心理学意义上的非理性特征;外地人、民企和外企人员、农民、下岗职工等体制外人群,选择上访的倾向更明显。
A sample survey of 1% of permanent residents in the E district of Southeast Coastal Area shows that over 98% of respondents understand the petitioning behavior and the potential petitioner’s proportion will be more than the proportion of potential petitioners who suffer loss of benefits or unfair treatment and the relatively modest solution 10%. The results of the regression model of ordering logic model show that petitioning mainly aims at solving the problems rather than declaring political opinions. The low life satisfaction leads to a more intense choice of behavior and the potential petitioners have the irrational characteristics of social psychology. The foreign residents, private enterprises And foreign personnel, peasants, laid-off workers and other people outside the system, the choice of petition tend to be more pronounced.