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从开放式区域经济系统的研究视角出发,构建了基于超越对数生产函数的能源模型,采用偏最小二乘回归方法消除模型的多重共线性,估计了参数。并利用1995~2010年的数据,定量测度了新疆的能源增长尾效。研究发现,能源对新疆经济增长影响的“尾效”逐年增加,均值为2.17%,高于全国的尾效值。利用灰色预测法,可以预测2015年新疆的能源“尾效”将增大到2.75%。能源约束对新疆经济的可持续增长有重大影响。
From the perspective of open regional economic system research, an energy model based on the transgressive logarithm production function was constructed. Partial least linear regression method was used to eliminate the multicollinearity of the model and the parameters were estimated. And use the data from 1995 to 2010, quantitative measurement of the tail effect of energy growth in Xinjiang. The study found that the “tail effect” of energy on the economic growth in Xinjiang increased year by year with a mean value of 2.17%, higher than the national end-result value. Using the gray prediction method, we can predict that the energy “tail effect ” will increase to 2.75% in 2015 in Xinjiang. Energy constraints have a significant impact on the sustainable growth of Xinjiang’s economy.