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考虑到城市轨道交通投资的不可逆性、不确定性、灵活性和公益性,提出城市轨道交通项目建设时机选择的实物期权随机变量模型。该模型运用几何布朗运动描述投资的不确定性因素,包括运营收入与建设成本,推导出这些因素的建设时机影响函数,以揭示推迟投资的影响。定义经营型和引导型价值的计算方法用以反映投资的经济效益和社会效益。运用蒙特卡洛模拟与OptQuest优化技术求解不同目标下的最优建设时机。算例分析表明,考虑城市轨道交通项目投资的引导型价值与单纯考虑经营型价值的最佳建设时机的计算结果不同。研究结果可为城市轨道交通发展规划的制定与实施提供理论依据。
Taking into account the irreversibility, uncertainty, flexibility and public welfare of urban rail transit investment, this paper proposes a real option stochastic variable model for timing selection of urban rail transit projects. The model uses geometric Brownian motion to describe the investment uncertainty, including operating income and construction cost, and derives the influence of construction timing on these factors to reveal the impact of postponement of investment. Define the calculation method of management-oriented and guidance-type value to reflect the economic and social benefits of investment. Use Monte Carlo Simulation and OptQuest Optimization Techniques to Solve the Optimal Construction Timing under Different Objectives. The case study shows that it is different from the result of calculating the optimal construction time when considering the investment value of urban rail transit project considering the value of management type. The results can provide a theoretical basis for the formulation and implementation of urban rail transit development planning.