论文部分内容阅读
August’s economic data released in early September once again prove that the Chinese economy has regained momentum， a slight to naysayers who have long predicted a hard landing for the world’s second largest economy.
The real economy is the foundation of a country’s economy， which is directly tied to jobs. According to the National Bureau of Statistics（NBS）， the purchasing managers’ index for the manufacturing sector， rose to 51 in August from 50.3 in July， the highest level since April last year. A reading above 50 indicates expanding activity. Industrial value-added output went up by 10.4 percent， the first time it went above 10 percent this year. Exports also saw an expected 7.2-percent increase in August， according to the figures released by the General Administration of Customs on September 8.
The capital market immediately responded to the optimistic economic data. Since September， China’s stock market has been on the rise. On September 9， when the NBS began releasing August economic figures， the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index jumped 3.39 percent， an increase rarely seen over the past three years.
Wang Jun， a researcher with China Center for International Economic Exchanges， thinks the data indicate that economic growth is higher than market expectations， and all the data suggest an economic recovery.
Global investment banks， including Goldman Sachs， HSBC， Standard Chartered and JPMorgan Chase & Co.， as well as international economic research institutions， have raised their forecasts of China’s GDP growth in 2013.
Under present conditions， the Chinese economy will reach its target of 7.5-percent growth set at the start of the year. Unexpected circumstances aside， the Chinese economy is expected to maintain a stable growth rate of 7-8 percent over the long term.
The August data should lay to rest claims of a “hard landing” for the Chinese economy， and give the Chinese Government more room to deepen economic reforms and shift the economy away from dependence on investment and exports and toward consumption. “China’s economy has entered the phase of quality and efficient growth. This second phase of growth will be a more exciting story，” said Chinese Premier Li Keqiang at the opening ceremony of 11th Summer Davos forum held in Dalian， Liaoning Province， on September 11.
The Third Plenary Session of the 18th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China， a meeting where major announcements regarding economic reform are expected， will be held in November. Since the meeting will set the trajectory and tone of the economy over the next five to 10 years and illustrate the new leadership’s ability to govern， expectations are high among the public. Reform brings benefits
The Chinese economy grew slowly in the first half of 2013， a clear indication that a transformation of the economy was underway and in line with the Central Government’s plans to shift the economy away from the model of heavy pollution and high energy consumption.
Many economists predicted the slowdown brought by the transformation would continue for a long time， but the August data indicate that the period of “pain” seems to have come or will soon come to an end， allowing China to embrace a period of more sound and sustain-able growth.
To ensure stability when transforming the country’s growth model， the new leadership has launched a dozen of reform measures， such as delegating more approval powers to lower level governments， removing the floor on lending rates， accelerating the development of energysaving industries and environmental protection， strengthening financial support to small and micro-sized enterprises and setting up Shanghai free trade area. August’s economic numbers show that these measures have achieved some effect， and the policy dividend unleashed has created an impetus for stable economic development.
Eyes on the future
China’s policies on ensuring stable growth will not just consider present growth， but sound and sustainable future growth as well.
Hu Chi， a researcher with the StateOwned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission’s research center， said economic growth is already in a recovery mode and is expected to maintain stability in the second half of the year. However， increasing local government debt， less investment in manufacturing， weak corporate profit growth， and particularly the decline of profits among private enterprises are all areas of concern that could thwart China’s recovery.
Hu adds that it would be close to impossible for the Chinese economy to return to doubledigit growth， a feat it enjoyed for much of 30 years. Growth of 7-8 percent over the next two decades is sufficient to meet the needs of the economy’s transformation， he said.
A report by Everbright Securities Co. Ltd. notes that consumption and investment in manufacturing have more room for growth. Although the August news is welcome， much of the positive data were due to infrastructure investment， something that can’t be relied on to maintain long term growth.
“From this point of view， we are concerned about how long such an economic recovery will continue，” read the report. “Only if consumption and exports can pick up the baton from infrastructure investment in the future， can the economic recovery be sustained.”
The real economy is the foundation of a country’s economy， which is directly tied to jobs. According to the National Bureau of Statistics（NBS）， the purchasing managers’ index for the manufacturing sector， rose to 51 in August from 50.3 in July， the highest level since April last year. A reading above 50 indicates expanding activity. Industrial value-added output went up by 10.4 percent， the first time it went above 10 percent this year. Exports also saw an expected 7.2-percent increase in August， according to the figures released by the General Administration of Customs on September 8.
The capital market immediately responded to the optimistic economic data. Since September， China’s stock market has been on the rise. On September 9， when the NBS began releasing August economic figures， the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index jumped 3.39 percent， an increase rarely seen over the past three years.
Wang Jun， a researcher with China Center for International Economic Exchanges， thinks the data indicate that economic growth is higher than market expectations， and all the data suggest an economic recovery.
Global investment banks， including Goldman Sachs， HSBC， Standard Chartered and JPMorgan Chase & Co.， as well as international economic research institutions， have raised their forecasts of China’s GDP growth in 2013.
Under present conditions， the Chinese economy will reach its target of 7.5-percent growth set at the start of the year. Unexpected circumstances aside， the Chinese economy is expected to maintain a stable growth rate of 7-8 percent over the long term.
The August data should lay to rest claims of a “hard landing” for the Chinese economy， and give the Chinese Government more room to deepen economic reforms and shift the economy away from dependence on investment and exports and toward consumption. “China’s economy has entered the phase of quality and efficient growth. This second phase of growth will be a more exciting story，” said Chinese Premier Li Keqiang at the opening ceremony of 11th Summer Davos forum held in Dalian， Liaoning Province， on September 11.
The Third Plenary Session of the 18th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China， a meeting where major announcements regarding economic reform are expected， will be held in November. Since the meeting will set the trajectory and tone of the economy over the next five to 10 years and illustrate the new leadership’s ability to govern， expectations are high among the public. Reform brings benefits
The Chinese economy grew slowly in the first half of 2013， a clear indication that a transformation of the economy was underway and in line with the Central Government’s plans to shift the economy away from the model of heavy pollution and high energy consumption.
Many economists predicted the slowdown brought by the transformation would continue for a long time， but the August data indicate that the period of “pain” seems to have come or will soon come to an end， allowing China to embrace a period of more sound and sustain-able growth.
To ensure stability when transforming the country’s growth model， the new leadership has launched a dozen of reform measures， such as delegating more approval powers to lower level governments， removing the floor on lending rates， accelerating the development of energysaving industries and environmental protection， strengthening financial support to small and micro-sized enterprises and setting up Shanghai free trade area. August’s economic numbers show that these measures have achieved some effect， and the policy dividend unleashed has created an impetus for stable economic development.
Eyes on the future
China’s policies on ensuring stable growth will not just consider present growth， but sound and sustainable future growth as well.
Hu Chi， a researcher with the StateOwned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission’s research center， said economic growth is already in a recovery mode and is expected to maintain stability in the second half of the year. However， increasing local government debt， less investment in manufacturing， weak corporate profit growth， and particularly the decline of profits among private enterprises are all areas of concern that could thwart China’s recovery.
Hu adds that it would be close to impossible for the Chinese economy to return to doubledigit growth， a feat it enjoyed for much of 30 years. Growth of 7-8 percent over the next two decades is sufficient to meet the needs of the economy’s transformation， he said.
A report by Everbright Securities Co. Ltd. notes that consumption and investment in manufacturing have more room for growth. Although the August news is welcome， much of the positive data were due to infrastructure investment， something that can’t be relied on to maintain long term growth.
“From this point of view， we are concerned about how long such an economic recovery will continue，” read the report. “Only if consumption and exports can pick up the baton from infrastructure investment in the future， can the economic recovery be sustained.”