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目的了解传染病自动预警系统(CIDARS)在太原市的预警效果,评价响应及时性。方法分析太原市2013年传染病自动预警监测数据,并与同期报告病例数进行比较。结果 2013年太原市预警系统共发出1 151条预警信号,涉及15种病种,响应率为100.00%,初步核实为疑似事件的预警信号33条,经过现场调查确认29条构成暴发,均为同一起麻疹暴发,预警阳性率为2.52%。预警病种的报告病例数与预警信号数呈正相关(r=0.954,P<0.01)。结论太原市CIDARS运行良好,能够辅助基层疾病预防控制机构早期发现可能的传染病暴发,但预警信号阳性率较低。
Objective To understand the warning effect of CIDARS in Taiyuan and evaluate the timeliness of response. Methods The automatic monitoring data of infectious diseases in Taiyuan in 2013 were analyzed and compared with the reported cases in the same period. Results In 2013, a total of 1,151 early warning signals were issued in Taiyuan early warning system involving 15 diseases and the response rate was 100.00%. 33 early warning signals of suspected incidents were initially verified, and 29 of them were confirmed by on-site investigation to be outbreaks A measles outbreak, early warning positive rate of 2.52%. There was a positive correlation between the number of reported cases and the number of early warning signals (r = 0.954, P <0.01). Conclusions CIDARS in Taiyuan is in good condition, which can help grassroots disease prevention and control agencies to detect possible outbreaks of infectious diseases in the early stage, but the positive rate of early warning signals is low.