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应用关联度分析方法 ,对宁夏 50年代至 90年代大面积种植的小麦品种性状的演变进行了分析 ,探讨了主要性状的变化趋势及相互影响的程度。用GM(1.1)模型对今后 10年小麦产量性状的发展趋势进行了预测。结果表明 :主要性状关联度排序为穗粒数 >主穗粒数 >穗粒重 >结实小穗数 >穗长 >收获指数 >千粒重>每小穗粒数 >株高。穗粒重、收获指数等性状呈上升趋势 ,对今后小麦高产育种有一定参考价值。
The correlation analysis was used to analyze the evolution of wheat cultivars cultivated in large area from the 1950s to the 1990s in Ningxia. The trends of the main traits and the degree of mutual influence were discussed. The GM (1.1) model was used to predict the development trend of wheat yield in the next 10 years. The results showed that the order of correlation of main characters was the number of spike per head> the number of main spike> the number of spike per head> the number of spikelets> the spike length> the index of harvest> the thousand-kernel weight> the number of spikelets per plant> plant height. Grain weight per spike, harvest index and other traits are on the rise, which will have certain reference value for future high-yielding wheat breeding.