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黄金期货除具有一般金属期货的特性外还具有金融属性,因此黄金期货的上市对我国期货市场的发展具有重要意义。本文应用自回归条件异方差(ARCH)模型对我国黄金期货价格的走势进行实证分析,并对黄金期货价格的走势进行预测。结果表明模型分析结果虽然存在一定的误差,但对投资者了解市场价格走势具有一定程度的参考意义。
In addition to having the characteristics of general metal futures, gold futures also have financial attributes, so the listing of gold futures is of great significance for the development of the futures market in our country. This paper applies autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARCH) model to analyze the trend of China’s gold futures prices and forecasts the trend of gold futures prices. The results show that although there is some error in the results of the model analysis, it is of some reference significance for investors to understand the market price trend.