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鉴古而知今,研究发达国家楼市史,有助于理解我国楼市。在长达120年的历史中,美国实际房价指数基本在100至130之间盘整,运行相当平稳,全国性的波动仅发生过两次:一是在一战前至二战结束(1914年至1945年),房地产市场总体疲弱,虽在20世纪20年代中期有过反弹,但未能形成整体性的复苏;二是2000年以来的房地产市场繁荣,不但涨幅惊人,而且首次呈现“繁荣——萧条”周期。
Ancient Kam and know now, study the property market history of developed countries, help to understand China’s property market. During the 120-year history, the U.S. real house price index basically consolidated between 100 and 130. The operation was fairly smooth and the national fluctuation only occurred twice: first, from the end of World War I until the end of World War II (1914-1945 Year), the overall sluggish real estate market, though having rebounded in the mid-1920s, failed to achieve a complete recovery. The second is that the real estate market has boomed since 2000, not only by astonishing but also for the first time showing “prosperity” Depression "cycle.