论文部分内容阅读
具有微观宏观一体化特征的基于主体的建模和模拟方法 (ABM)正在迅速兴起和广泛应用,为探索经济和金融市场的复杂性提供了有力工具,展现了e-Science应用于经济学及人文社会科学研究中的美好前景,但必须通过行为分析深化等丰富其理论基础。本文利用e-Science及相关技术,试图通过深化行为分析和模拟结构演变过程,揭示社会经济的复杂现象等传统理论方法难以解决的问题;具体在研究中扩展了认知层次行为模型(CH)和ABM方法,基于中国股市上的真实投资行为,在MatLab和Netlogo软件平台上重点用计算实验方法比较了机构投资者和个体投资者对市场基本信息和政策信号的不同响应模式和反应强度,如此能比传统理论方法更有效和深入地分析发现微观层面上异质性主体的关键行为特征与市场总体的异常现象或典型化事实之间的相互联系和影响,也从实证角度在一定程度上支持了中国股市具有政策敏感性的特征。
The subject-based modeling and simulation method (ABM) with micro-macro integration features is rapidly emerging and widely used, providing a powerful tool for exploring the complexity of economic and financial markets, demonstrating the e-Science application in economics and humanities Social science research in the bright future, but must be deepened through behavioral analysis to enrich its theoretical basis. In this paper, by using e-Science and related technologies, we try to reveal problems that traditional theories and methods such as complex socio-economic problems can not be solved by deepening behavioral analysis and simulating the process of structural evolution. Specifically, we expand the cognitive hierarchy behavior model (CH) and ABM method, based on the real investment behavior in the Chinese stock market, compares the different response modes and reaction intensity of institutional investors and individual investors to the basic market information and policy signals on the MatLab and Netlogo software platforms by means of computational experiments More effective and in-depth analysis of the interrelationships and influences between the key behavioral traits of heterogeneous agents at the micro level and the anomalies or typified facts of the market as a whole, in a more effective and in-depth way than the traditional theoretical methods, also supports to some extent from an empirical point of view China’s stock market has the characteristics of policy sensitivity.