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以水稻为研究对象,选取松嫩平原20个国家气象台站和国家气象中心提供的格点气象数据,采用作物系数法和Mc Cloud模型及P-M模型估算水稻需水量,应用水量平衡模型估算水稻灌溉需水量,分析水稻生育期内需水量变化规律.结果表明:历史时期和气候变化情景下,松嫩平原水稻全生育期和生育中期(Lmid时段)灌溉需水量等值线沿西南-东北方向递减,同一灌溉需水量等值线北移.历史时期和气候变化情景下水稻全生育期灌溉需水量随年代呈波动增加趋势,其中前者以44.2 mm·10 a-1速度增加,后者以19.9 mm·10 a-1速度增加.历史时期和气候变化情景下Lmid时段水稻灌溉需水量随年代均呈波动增加趋势,其中前者显著增加,后者增加不显著.气候变化情景对水稻需水量的贡献率为波动上升,与1970s相比,2000s气候变化对水稻需水量的贡献率为23.6%,增加14.8×108m3灌溉水量;2040s气候变化对水稻需水量的贡献率为34.4%,增加21.2×108m3灌溉水量.
Taking rice as the research object, we selected the grid meteorological data provided by 20 national meteorological stations and the National Meteorological Center in the Songnen Plain, estimated the water requirement of rice by crop coefficient method, Mc Cloud model and PM model, and estimated the irrigation need The results showed that under historical and climate change scenarios, the isoline of irrigation water demand during the whole growth period and Lmid period of Songnen Plain decreased along the southwest-northeast direction, and the same Irrigation water demand contour moved northward.Water consumption during the whole growth period under the historical period and climate change scenario showed a trend of increasing with age, of which the former increased by 44.2 mm · 10 a-1 and the latter by 19.9 mm · 10 a-1, the irrigation water requirement of rice in Lmid period increased with the increase of age in historical period and climate change scenario, among which the former increased significantly and the latter increased insignificantly.The contribution of climate change scenarios to water requirement of rice fluctuated Compared with the 1970s, the contribution of climate change to water requirement of rice in 2000s was 23.6%, an increase of 14.8 × 108m3 irrigation water; 2040s climate change on water Contribution of water demand was 34.4%, an increase of 21.2 × 108m3 irrigation water.