我国国民经济经过几年的调整和改革,形势越来越好。一九八四年工农业生产大幅度增长,特别是能源的增长速度达到8%,是近年来所未有的。虽然如此,能源仍是短线物资。电力不足,运输用油紧张,民用燃料,主要是农村燃料匮乏仍然是大好形势下较大的问题。能源依然是国民经济发展和人民生活改善的制约因素。到本世纪末我国工农业总产值翻两番这个宏伟目标的实现,必须有足够的原材料,尤其是能源、动力。今后十五年能源的增长速度会是多少,需求量又是多少,能源的产量能否保证工农业翻两番的需要,在人们心目中一直是比较突出的问题。几年来许多部门、团体、个人进行了大量工作,对本世纪末我国能源可能达到的产量和届时能源消费总量进行预测,以探讨两者能否得到平衡。由于问题比较复杂,预测的结果差异较大。关于能源产量的预测,一度对本世纪末能否比一九八○年增加一倍意见分歧。一些部门和专家认为到 After several years of adjustments and reforms in our national economy, the situation is getting better and better. In 1984, industrial and agricultural production increased significantly, especially the growth rate of energy reached 8%, which has not been seen in recent years. Nevertheless, energy is still short-term supplies. The shortage of electricity, the shortage of transport oil, and civilian fuels, mainly the scarcity of fuel in rural areas, are still major problems in the good situation. Energy remains a constraint to the development of the national economy and the improvement of people’s lives. By the end of this century, the realization of the grand goal of quadrupling China’s industrial and agricultural output value must have sufficient raw materials, especially energy and power. What will be the growth rate of energy in the next fifteen years, and how much demand will be needed. Whether the output of energy can ensure the quadrupling of the demand for industry and agriculture has always been a prominent issue in people’s minds. Over the past few years, many departments, groups, and individuals have done a lot of work to predict the potential energy production and total energy consumption at the end of this century in order to explore whether the two can be balanced. Due to the complexity of the problem, the predicted results are quite different. Regarding the prediction of energy production, it was once divided over whether the end of this century can double compared to 1980. Some departments and experts believe that