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中国经济2013年的开局数据已公布,GDP同比增长7.7%,环比仅增1.6%,低于市场的普遍预期,仍然运行在2011年以来形成的下行减速趋势中。而过去两年,虽然有超过GDP增速加通货膨胀的温和货币供应增速,以及更快的社会融资规模增速;虽然有超过GDP1%以上的财政赤字,但中国经济仍在每年惯性下行1.2个百分点以上。因此,要维持2013年中国经济的弱复苏,也许需要政策更有新意。如何解读这些开局数据?这又会给全年宏观经济运行以何种预示?
The start-up data for the Chinese economy in 2013 has been released, with GDP up 7.7% from a year earlier and a mere 1.6% month-on-month, lower than the generally expected market and still running in the downward trend that has slowed down since 2011. In the past two years, although there was a moderate increase in the money supply exceeding the growth rate of GDP and inflation, as well as a faster growth of social financing scale, the Chinese economy is still coasting down 1.2% a year despite having a deficit of more than 1% of GDP A percentage point or more. Therefore, to maintain the weak recovery of China’s economy in 2013 may require more innovative policies. How to interpret these opening data? This will give the full year macroeconomic forecast with what?