提出了风险率R和 β 这两个分析风险的指标 ,指了它们之间的关系及优缺点 .同时对水利工程风险分析过程中常涉及到的洪峰流量的概率分布作了相应的介绍 ,针对其分布的特殊性 ,介绍了计算这两种指标的方法R -F法和蒙特卡罗法 ,分析了这两种方法的特点及发展前景 The risk R and β risk indicators are proposed, which refer to their relationship and advantages and disadvantages.At the same time, the probability distribution of flood peak flow often involved in the risk analysis of water conservancy projects is introduced correspondingly Distribution of the particularity, introduced the calculation of these two indicators of the method R-F method and Monte Carlo method, analyzed the characteristics of these two methods and development prospects