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[目的]定量化估算未来气候变化情景下宁夏引黄灌区玉米产量变化趋势。[方法]利用区域气候模式输出的未来90a(2010～2100年)宁夏25km×25km网格的逐日温度、降水、辐射等资料,采用校正的CERES-Maize模型对宁夏21世纪的玉米产量状况进行研究。[结果]随着气候变暖,在未来气候情景下,采用当前玉米的适应性品种和最优生产管理措施,与基准年份BS(1961～1990年平均)相比,宁夏引黄灌区玉米产量在2020s和2050s表现为增产趋势,到2080s,随气温的进一步升高,则开始减产。玉米的产量构成因素穗粒数和穗粒重也表现相同的趋势。在2020s和2050s,B2情景下的玉米增产幅度大于A2情景,2080s,B2情景下的玉米减产幅度小于A2情景。[结论]随着气候变暖,宁夏引黄灌区玉米增产,随气温的进一步升高,则开始减产。
[Objective] The research aimed to quantitatively estimate the change trend of maize yield in irrigated areas of Yellow River in Ningxia in the future climate change scenarios. [Method] Based on the daily temperature, precipitation and radiation of 25km × 25km grid in Ningxia in the future 90a (2010 ~ 2100) output from regional climate model, the CERES-Maize model was used to study the yield status of maize in the 21st century in Ningxia. . [Result] With the warming of climate, adapting varieties and optimal production management measures of current maize were adopted in the future climate scenarios. Compared with the BS (1961-1990 average) in the reference year, the maize yield in the irrigation areas of Ningxia Yellow River decreased from 2020s and 2050s showed a trend of increase in production, to 2080s, with the further increase in temperature, then began to cut. Yield Components of Corn The same trend was also demonstrated for the number of grains per spike and the weight of grains per ear. In 2020s and 2050s, the yield increase of maize in B2 scenario is greater than that in A2 scenario, and that of maize in 2080s and B2 scenario is less than that in A2 scenario. [Conclusion] With the warming of climate, corn yield increased in Ningxia Yellow River Irrigation Area, with the further increase of temperature, the yield reduction began.