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本文以“复杂人”为假设条件,将非经济预期因素纳入托达罗模型,基于“经济预期”和“非经济预期”两个维度试图构建一个更加贴近现实的劳动力转移理论框架,并利用四川省、重庆市和贵州省的调研数据,采用二元Logistic模型估计方法,分析影响农村劳动力转移意愿的相关因素。研究结果表明,收入预期、择偶意愿、子女教育意愿、技能获取意愿、职业多样化选择意愿、职业晋升意愿及城市融入意愿对农村劳动力转移意愿均存在显著的促进作用;交际意愿、职业稳定意愿和未来创业意愿对农村劳动力转移意愿的影响相对较弱。为了进一步探析各个动因对农村劳动力转移的影响程度,采用均方差对各影响因素进行权重确定和排序,分析结果发现:非经济预期已演化为农村劳动力转移的新驱动力,情感预期已超越经济预期,成为吸引农村劳动力向城市转移的首要因素,经济预期与职业预期并列第二位,发展预期位列第三。
Based on the assumption that “complex person ”, this paper takes the non-economic expectation factor into the Todaro model and tries to build a more realistic transfer of labor force based on the two dimensions of “economic expectation” and “non-economic expectation” Theoretical framework and using the research data of Sichuan Province, Chongqing City and Guizhou Province, using binary Logistic model estimation method to analyze the relevant factors affecting the willingness of rural labor transfer. The results show that income expectancy, intention of spouse selection, willingness of children's education, willingness to acquire skills, choice of career diversification, career promotion intention and intention of urban integration all play significant roles in rural labor force transfer. The impact of future entrepreneurship on rural labor force transfer will be weaker. In order to further analyze the influence of each motivation on the transfer of rural labor force, the paper uses the mean square error to determine and sort the factors. The results show that the non-economic expectation has evolved into the new driving force of rural labor force transfer, and the expectation of emotion has surpassed the economic expectation , Has become the primary factor in attracting rural labors to cities. The economic expectation is tied for the second place with career expectation and the development is expected to be the third one.