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本文通过引入报酬递增和市场饱和点,采用D-S模型方法,分析技术冲击引起经济波动的微观机制,回答了真实经济周期理论无法解释技术倒退的困境,通过缩短技术和产品创新周期可以有效降低经济波动的幅度。笔者的分析表明:技术冲击和市场饱和点引起的需求约束,有助于理解耐用品消费和产业结构升级引起的中国近三十年经济波动。
This paper introduces the micro-mechanism of economic fluctuations caused by technology shocks by introducing the increasing returns and market saturation points, and answers the real economic cycle theory that can not explain the dilemma of technology retrogression. It can effectively reduce the economic fluctuations by shortening the technology and product innovation cycle Amplitude. The author’s analysis shows that the demand constraint caused by the impact of technology and market saturation points helps to understand the economic fluctuations in China over the past three decades caused by the rise in the consumption of durable goods and the upgrading of industrial structure.