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我国电力市场化改革首先是在发电侧引入竞争机制,发电商作为独立的经济实体,通过竞价上网参与市场竞争,面临的关键问题是如何采用最优的报价策略获得最大收益。根据电力市场中发电机组状况的差异,应用演化博弈论中的多群体复制动态博弈模型对发电商有差别的、有限理性的竞价策略进行了模拟,分析了发电商在竞价过程中竞价策略的自发演化过程及演化稳定策略,并通过算例对模型进行了定量评价。结果表明,不仅多群体复制动态博弈模型能较充分地反映出发电商报价的动态过程,同时还说明只有合理的竞价规则才能促进发电侧电力市场的健康发展。
In the electricity market reform of our country, the competition mechanism is firstly introduced on the power generation side. As an independent economic entity, the electricity supplier participates in the market competition through bidding on the Internet. The key question is how to use the optimal bidding strategy to get the maximum benefit. According to the difference of genset status in power market, this paper simulates the bidding strategies with difference and limited rationality by using multi-group replica dynamic game model in evolutionary game theory, and analyzes the spontaneous bidding strategy of generator in bidding process Evolutionary process and evolutionary stability strategy, and a quantitative evaluation of the model through an example. The results show that not only the multi-group replication dynamic game model can more fully reflect the dynamic process of bidding, but also shows that only reasonable bidding rules can promote the healthy development of power generation market.