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采用层次分析法(AHP)从自然资源、发展基础条件、市场前景三方面共计选取22个评价因子构建了适宜性评价指标体系,将德尔菲法(Delphi)与AHP法相结合确定各层评价因子权重,形成天津市淡水养殖用地适宜性评价模型。通过大量的实地调研和相关统计数据及地图的搜集,将数据标准化形成评价模型的基础地图,模型的运算结果将天津市淡水养殖用地分为四个适宜性等级,分别为非常适宜、适宜、一般适宜和不适宜。评价结果表明,天津市可用于淡水养殖的区域共计63 142 hm2,主要为适宜和一般适宜地区,分别占42.38%和56.56%;非常适宜地区占0.62%,主要分布在宝坻区南部;不适宜地区最少,占0.44%,主要分布在东丽区南部。通过养殖面积现状和可用面积的对比得出天津市发展淡水养殖潜力较大的主要有宁河县、滨海新区、西青区以及静海县;武清区、宝坻区、北辰区的淡水养殖发展相对充分,但仍具备发展空间。在此基础上从自然资源、发展基础条件等方面分析了天津市各个区县的养殖发展前景,并给出发展建议。为了进一步扩展适宜性评价应用领域,共享研究成果,还整合模型构建方法,研究开发了基于Arc GIS的桌面版和网络版水产养殖规划管理系统,该系统目前已上线运行。
Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) selects 22 evaluation factors from natural resources, development basic conditions and market prospects to construct a suitability evaluation index system, and combines the Delphi and AHP methods to determine the weight of each evaluation factor , Forming a suitable evaluation model of Tianjin freshwater aquaculture land use. Through a large number of field research and related statistics and map collection, the data are standardized to form the basic map of the evaluation model. The results of the model are used to divide the freshwater aquaculture sites in Tianjin into four suitability levels, which are very suitable, appropriate and general Suitable and not suitable. The evaluation results showed that the total area available for freshwater aquaculture in Tianjin totaled 63 142 hm2, mainly suitable and generally suitable areas, accounting for 42.38% and 56.56% respectively; 0.62% for very suitable areas and mainly distributed in the southern part of Baodi District; unsuitable areas At least, accounting for 0.44%, mainly in the southern part of Dongli District. The comparison between the present status of aquaculture area and available area shows that Ningxia County, Binhai New Area, Xiqing District and Jinghai County are the major potentialities of freshwater aquaculture development in Tianjin. The freshwater aquaculture development in Wuqing District, Baodi District and Beichen District is relatively Full, but still have room for development. On this basis, from the natural resources, the development of basic conditions and other aspects of the analysis of the development of farming in all districts and counties in Tianjin, and gives recommendations for development. In order to further expand the applicability of suitability evaluation and share the research results, this paper also integrates the model construction method and studies the ArcGIS-based desktop and online aquaculture planning and management system which has been put into operation at present.