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许多研究发现政治不稳定的地区更能吸引中国的OFDI,这一发现形成一种悖论,中国的对外直接投资行为与内部化理论不相符。本文结合内部化理论和实物期权理论解释新兴市场国家跨国公司OFDI行为,基于1996-2012年中国对109个国家的对外直接投资数据,从政治不稳定性和建交时长两个角度,分析东道国政治风险对中国对外直接投资意愿和规模的影响。回归结果表明,中国OFDI倾向于进入政治不稳定和建交时间较长的发展中国家市场;在投资规模上,与中国建交时间较长的发展中国家和地区吸引了中国大量的OFDI。研究证明,实物期权理论可以解释中国对外直接投资初期区位选择的影响因素,内部化理论解释中国对外直接投资规模的影响因素。
Many studies have found that politically unstable areas are more attractive to OFDI in China. This discovery creates a paradox that China’s OFDI behavior is not consistent with the theory of internalization. Based on the internalization theory and the real option theory, this article explains the OFDI behavior of multinationals in emerging market countries. Based on the data of China’s FDI to 109 countries from 1996 to 2012, this paper analyzes the political risk of the host country from the perspective of political instability and establishment of diplomatic relations Impact on the Willingness and Scale of China’s Foreign Direct Investment. The regression results show that OFDI of China tends to enter the market of developing countries with political instability and longer establishment of diplomatic relations. In terms of investment scale, developing countries and regions that established diplomatic relations with China for a long time have attracted a large amount of Chinese OFDI. The research proves that the real option theory can explain the influencing factors of the initial location choice of China’s OFDI and the internalization theory explains the influencing factors of the size of China’s OFDI.