分析了政府终结的方法———基本经验模式和演绎模式方法。基本经验模式发展成主体,将日益复杂微妙的事件应用于数据统计,并受到学界很大程度的认可。演绎方法发展为不合作博弈,以主要政治角色的反应为标准,譬如,如果政府快要垮台,有关可能的选举结果就会被准确地预测。把这两种传统模式融合为一种综合的研究模式目前还没有转化为现实。 Analyzes the methods of government’s termination --- the basic experience model and the deductive model method. The development of the basic empirical model into the subject, the increasingly complex and subtle incidents applied to the data statistics, and a large degree of academic recognition. The deductive method developed into a non-cooperative game, which is based on the reaction of major political actors. For example, if the government is about to fall, the possible outcome of the election will be accurately predicted. The integration of these two traditional models into a comprehensive research model has not yet been translated into reality.