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目的:探讨初产妇中影响子宫颈扩张球囊引产结局的因素，建立预测成功的模型。方法:选取2018年1月至2019年4月深圳大学第一附属医院使用子宫颈扩张球囊引产的孕足月初产妇312例为研究对象，评估孕妇的年龄、孕次、身高、体重指数、宫颈Bishop评分、新生儿体重、妊娠期合并症等因素对引产结局的影响。结果:初产妇孕次、宫颈Bishop评分、身高与子宫颈扩张球囊引产成功率呈正相关，体重指数、新生儿体重与引产成功率呈负相关，建立的logistic多因素回归预测模型的曲线下面积为0.849，最佳诊断阈值为0.725，灵敏度为80.7%，特异度为75.7%。结论:宫颈评分、孕次、身高、体重指数和新生儿体重可作为预测指标，建立预测初产妇球囊引产成功的模型，有助于选择合适引产对象，减少临床干预，提高引产成功率。“,”Objective:To investigate the influencing factors and to build a model for predicting successful labor induction with cervical ripening balloon (CRB) in primipara.Methods:312 cases of primipara in late trimester of pregnancy induced by CRB between January 2018 and April 2019 in the First Affiliated Hospital of Shenzhen University were reviewed retrospectively. Factors including gravidity, age, body height, body weight, body mass index (BMI), the cervical Bishop score, neonatal birth weight, pregnant complication and other factors were collected to analyze the effect on successful labor induction.Results:Pregnancy times, cervical Bishop score and height in primipara were positively correlated with the success rate of induced labor, while BMI and neonatal weight were negatively correlated with the success rate of induced labor. The area under receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was 0.849 and diagnostic threshold was 0.725, with a sensitivity of 80.7% and a specificity of 75.7%.Conclusions:Among the primipara, the gravidity and cervical Bishop score are the most significant factors influencing the successful labor induction. These factors can be used as the predictive indexes for the outcome of labor induction along with pregnancy times, height, BMI and neonatal birth weight, which is beneficial to reduce the artificial interventions and improve the success rate of labor induction.