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目的为中小学校流行性感冒监测体系提供合适的预警方法和预警界值,为科学防控流感提供参考依据。方法采用历史数据建立预警数据库,应用控制图法建立预警模型,确定流行标准,通过计算各候选预警界值预警的灵敏度、特异度、似然比和阳性预测值等指标,优选出合适的预警界值。结果医院流感样病例百分比(ILI%)、流感样病例缺勤数和流感暴发疫情监测数据均为非正态分布,三者呈正相关;学校流感样病例缺勤数的预警界,在第p80时灵敏度为100%,特异度为91.89%;流感暴发疫情的预警界值在第p75时灵敏度为100%,特异度为94.59%。结论流感样病例缺勤数合适的预警界值是p80,流感暴发疫情合适的预警界值是p75。
Objective To provide appropriate precautionary measures and precautionary thresholds for the primary and secondary school influenza surveillance system and provide reference for scientific prevention and control of influenza. Methods Based on the historical data, an early warning database was set up. The early warning model was established by using the control chart method to determine the epidemic standard. The indexes such as the sensitivity, specificity, likelihood ratio and positive predictive value of early warning for each candidate precautionary threshold were selected, value. Results The percentage of hospital-like flu-like cases (ILI%), the number of flu-like cases absent and the outbreak surveillance data of influenza outbreak were all non-normal distribution, and the three were positively correlated. In the precautionary sector of school flu-like cases, the sensitivity was 100%, and specificity of 91.89%. The pre-warning cutoff value of influenza outbreak was 100% at the p75 and the specificity was 94.59%. Conclusion The appropriate warning threshold for absence of flu-like illness is p80, and the appropriate precautionary threshold for influenza outbreak is p75.