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水资源过度开发是新疆内陆河区生态环境恶化的主要原因之一,农业用水量占新疆经济社会总用水量的94.8%,大量开发土地和增加灌溉面积导致新疆内陆河区生态用水被农业用水长期无偿挤占,因此,减少农业用水量、增加生态用水量是新疆内陆河区域在今后一段时期内面临的严峻课题。本文分别建立完全信息静态和动态博弈模型、演化博弈模型,研究农业用水户和地州政府在新疆生态用水保障与管理中的策略。结果表明,为了实现内陆河区经济社会-水资源-生态协调发展的理想均衡状态,地州政府需要加大对农业超额用水户的惩罚力度,鼓励研发更先进的灌溉节水技术;同时,自治区政府要给予严格控制生态用水总量的地州政府政策激励,引导地州政府之间加强区域联防合作。本文的研究能为新疆地区政府部门建立科学有效的生态用水保障与管理机制提供决策参考,同时也为我国干旱半干旱地区构建生态用水治理体系提供借鉴。
Over-exploitation of water resources is one of the main reasons for the deterioration of ecological environment in inland river areas of Xinjiang. Agricultural water accounts for 94.8% of the total water consumption in Xinjiang’s economy and society. Large-scale development of land and increase of irrigated area lead to the ecological water use in inland river areas of Xinjiang being agricultural Therefore, reducing agricultural water consumption and increasing ecological water consumption are serious issues facing the inland river area of Xinjiang in the coming period. In this paper, the static and dynamic game model and evolutionary game model of complete information are respectively established to study the strategies of agricultural water users and prefectural governments in ecological water security and management in Xinjiang. The results show that in order to realize the ideal equilibrium state of economy, society, water resources and ecology in inland river areas, the state government needs to increase the penalties for agricultural excess water users and encourage the development of more advanced irrigation and water saving technologies. At the same time, The autonomous region’s government should give encouragement to the state government policies that strictly control the total amount of ecological water and guide the prefectural and state governments to strengthen regional joint defense and cooperation. The research in this paper can provide reference for decision-making for the government departments in Xinjiang to establish a scientific and effective eco-water security and management mechanism, and provide reference for the construction of ecological water governance system in arid and semi-arid regions in China.