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本文遵循地震的断层成因学说,根据断层宏观剪切破坏条件,导出了震区应力水平的单一物理参数.详细研究了地震活动的物理过程.由于缺乏必要的原始资料,对地震序列进行确定性研究存在巨大的困难.就目前情况而论,b 值预报可能是估计地震危险性的一个有效方法.本文提出了几种物理模型,详细研究了 b 值变化的物理背景,导出了 b 值与震区地质构造条件和应力水平之间的关系.利用本文的结果,可以较好地解释实际观测中发现的 b 值变化的规律,以及它的变化范围.倘若在今后的观测中能得到进一步的证实,这些结果对地震预报会有更多的参考价值.
In this paper, we follow the theory of fault genesis of earthquakes and derive a single physical parameter of seismic stress level according to the macroscopic shear failure conditions of the earthquake.The physical process of seismic activity has been studied in detail.The deterministic study of seismic sequences due to the lack of necessary source data There is a huge difficulty.According to the current situation, b value prediction may be an effective method to estimate the seismic risk.This paper presents several physical models, the physical background of b value changes in detail, the b value and the earthquake zone The relationship between the geological conditions and the stress level.Using the results of this paper, we can explain the law of the change of b value found in the actual observation well and its range of change.If it can be further confirmed in the future observation, These results will have more reference value for earthquake prediction.