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选取2007年7月退税率调低政策事件作为实验环境,研究出口退税率调低对贸易商品的月度同比增长率的影响。结果表明:退税率调低对初级品类商品的贸易增长率有较大的负向效果,对资源类商品贸易增长率影响并不明显。稳健性检验显示出口退税率调整对贸易增长率影响具有一定的连续性和滞后性,对不同商品产生的作用有很大差异,经由调整窗宽、反事实检验和引入3次大规模政策调整扩展分析,印证了文中结论。政策制定者对贸易涉及产品的市场环境以及行业特点等因素有正确评估,选择恰当的退税率调整政策商品贸易组合,会有助于实现其目标。
Select July 2007 tax rebate rate policy events as an experimental environment to study the impact of lower export tax rebate rate on the monthly growth of trade in goods. The results show that the tax rebate rate has a greater negative effect on the trade growth rate of primary commodities, while the impact on the growth rate of resource commodities trade is not obvious. Robustness tests show that the impact of export tax rebate rate adjustment on trade growth rate has a certain continuity and lag, the role of different commodities have very different, through the adjustment of window width, counterfactual test and the introduction of three large-scale policy adjustment expansion Analysis, confirmed the conclusion of the article. Policymakers have a correct assessment of factors such as the market environment for trade-related products and industry characteristics, and choosing the appropriate tax rebate rate to adjust the policy commodity trade portfolio will help achieve its goals.